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23 December 2006
The fundamentalist forces based in Mogadishu and their supporters are expecting Ethiopia to play their game on their own terms. Ethiopia, however, must demonstrate that it can never play their game and that has its own rules and strategies.
The main rules of their game resemble these: The first rule of their game is to make out the conflict between them and Ethiopia as a war between Islam and Christianity. Ethiopia should not play this game. We should show them and the world at large that the conflict is not between Islam and Christianity, that Ethiopia is both home to Muslims and Christians, that there are more Muslims in Ethiopia than there are in the Middle East and that Islam was practiced in Ethiopia well before it was done so in Somalia. They should be reminded that they should respect the Prophet Mohammad's edict to leave Ethiopia alone.
Since their agenda is to enlist the support of Arabs and Muslims as well as to purchase arms by playing the religious card, Ethiopia should pursue a strategy designed to isolate them and bring Arabs and Muslims to our side. The rule of the game should be our own.
The second rule of their game is to depict Ethiopia as their historical enemy. We need to show clearly to the people of Somalia and the world at large that Ethiopia is not a historical enemy of Somalia and the vice versa. The outbreak of war does not presuppose the existence of historical enmity between the warring parties. Ethiopia has fought wars with Italy and the Mahadists of Sudan. This does not imply that Ethiopia and Italy or Ethiopia and Sudan are historical enemies. Similarly, the fact that the United States of America fought a war for independence with England does not make the two countries historical enemies. It's because Ethiopia is not Somalia's historical enemy that it did not take advantage of the latter's chaotic state in the last fifteen years and attack it.
The third rule of their game is to create the impression that if Ethiopia were to engage in a war of self-defense the conflict would spread to the rest of Africa. We need to make it clear that defending our sovereignty does not entail violating the sovereignty of Africa countries. In fact we should underscore that Ethiopia's firm stand on its sovereignty is a lesson to those who are bent on spreading fundamentalism through force. We should be able to unambiguously show that their war-mongering rules of the game do not apply to us, that their scare tactics do not work on us.
The fourth rule of their game is to make the world believe that foreign forces or army personnel have been deployed in Somalia and thereby scare Ethiopia. We must also show that we do not play by this rule. We should reiterate that the Mogadishu fundamentalists themselves have been facilitating things for long for fundamentalists groups like the al-Ittihad. Even now, having invited similar foreign groups, they have acknowledged that Eritrean troops are present in Somalia so as to expose them as agents that do not stand for Somalia's sovereignty. We must endeavour to persuade moderate forces to question the motives of the fundamentalists by showing to them that the latter have sold out Somalia to their puppet masters. We need to draw attention to the fact that we play by a different rule.
The fifth rule of their game is to make use of some Ethiopian opposition forces as an instrument to create problems for Ethiopia. Again, we need to show them that we will not play by this rule. We should let them know that we understand well their common strategy to form an alliance and share resources to achieve their goal. It should be clearly stated that any force which, enticed by various benefits and driven by the lust for power, consorts with the enemy will be regarded as an enemy.
The sixth rule of their game is to amass whatever weaponry they can and then pin down Ethiopian defence forces permanently in Somalia's territory by resorting to guerilla warfare. It must be unmistakably clear to them that Ethiopia will not allow itself to play by this rule. If it is forced to engage in a war of self-defence, it will follow its own strategy, it will not conduct the war on their terms. We must show them that we are not a people who are scared by their rhetoric or whose defence forces will be overwhelmed by them.
In conclusion, we are of the opinion we should do whatever is possible to avert war. But if we are forced to engage in a war of self-defence, we must ensure that the rules of the game ours, not the enemy's.